Parliamentary debate on Copenhagen preparations: Transcript of opening session by Secretary of State Ed Miliband, and closing session by Minister Joan Ruddock.

 

The Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change (Edward Miliband): I beg to move,

 

That this House has considered the matter of climate change: preparation for the Copenhagen climate change conference.

 

As Members will know, the United Nations Copenhagen climate change conference will open in a month’s time. At this critical time, the Government believe that it is important for the House to have a chance to discuss our preparations for the conference. In the time available to me, I want to explain why we believe that we need an agreement at Copenhagen, the sort of agreement that we wish to try to secure there, and the steps that we are taking in that respect.

 

Let me start by addressing the question of why we need an agreement. In the last year, I have had the privilege of meeting people in places from the northern desert of China to the Amazon rain forest in Brazil. I think that in such places we see the reality of climate change, in the sense that we are utterly interdependent. Actions in one country will affect those in another, and it is often the poorest and most vulnerable in our world, who have done the least to cause the problem of climate change, who face the greatest additional vulnerability. None of us, however, can insulate ourselves from the effects of climate change.

 

The urgency of climate change and, indeed, Copenhagen lies in the science. Atmospheric concentrations are at their highest level for at least 650,000 years. In the United Kingdom, nine of the 10 warmest years on record occurred during the last 15. In 2007, for the first time in recorded history, the north-west passage of the Arctic was ice-free and open to shipping in the summer. All those facts are important, and remaking the case for the science seems to me to be important as well.

 

We hear siren voices saying that the science is not real and that it is utterly contested and divided, and coming up with a whole range of explanations. I think that all of us in the House have a responsibility in that regard. I am not a scientist, but I am advised by a range of scientists—many of whom do not work for me, but work for organisations from the Royal Society to the Hadley Centre and a range of other institutions—and I think that remaking that case is very important.

 

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Several hon. Members rose —

Edward Miliband: What a range of choices! I give way first to my hon. Friend the Member for Morley and Rothwell (Colin Challen).

Colin Challen (Morley and Rothwell) (Lab): I am grateful to my right hon. Friend, not least for making that last point. Just lately, a number of those siren voices have been saying that there has been a little bit of cooling in recent years. Does my right hon. Friend agree that that is entirely explicable within the models and the overall trend of global warming?

Edward Miliband: My hon. Friend is right. This may be the point at which the fact that I am not a scientist will come out, but I believe I am right in saying that 1998 was a particularly warm year. That was because of the El Niño effect, and that is why I have made the point that if we look at a longer period, we are struck by the fact that nine of the 10 warmest years on record have occurred during the last 15.

Mr. John Gummer (Suffolk, Coastal) (Con): Does the right hon. Gentleman agree that even if we were wrong about human intervention in climate change, the measures that we need to take would have to be taken if we are to live in this world in a sustainable way, given the increase in population and the increase in the expectations and choices that that population has?

Edward Miliband: I do agree with the right hon. Gentleman. He has made an important point. Let me make another, related point. On the basis of my conversations with scientists, I believe that they are as certain about this as scientists are certain about anything. Even if they were not utterly certain about it, however, would we really want to bet our future on the very slim possibility that they might be wrong?

This is the best analogy that I can think of. If I were told that my children could go on an aeroplane flight in 20 years’ time and there was a 90 per cent. chance that the aeroplane would crash, I would never send them on the aeroplane flight. In this instance, when it is being said that the probability is 95 per cent. or more, I ask: do we really want to bet our future on the very slim possibility that the scientists might be wrong, which I do not believe they are?

Mr. Graham Stuart (Beverley and Holderness) (Con): I congratulate the Secretary of State on his argument. I remember that, when his brother was responsible for these matters, I felt that the introduction to the Bill that became the Climate Change Act 2008 rather overstated the case. We would do better to talk about risk if we are to carry people with us, given that many of them are rightly sceptical. We should not create artificial divides between deniers and alarmists. There is a risk, and only people with peculiar and unfounded levels of certainty can be sure one way or another. That is why we must think in terms of responsible actions in the future.

Edward Miliband: The hon. Gentleman is absolutely right. I will, of course, brook no criticism of my brother. He does own up to getting a D in A-level physics, but I do not think that that explains the particular point that the hon. Gentleman has made. However, I know that he agrees with me on the question of risk.

Mr. Mike Weir (Angus) (SNP): I agree entirely with what the Secretary of State says about the science, but is not one of the difficulties that the science tells us that we must take strong action? Politicians also say that we must take strong action, but in the lead-up to Copenhagen, there seems to be a drift away from that strong action. There is a certain cynicism among the public because we say that strong action is needed, but are apparently unwilling to take it.

Edward Miliband: The hon. Gentleman is right in saying that the politics is behind the science. There has been some catching up in various countries in the past year, but his fundamental point that the politics is behind the science is correct.

Barry Gardiner (Brent, North) (Lab): I am glad that my right hon. Friend has nailed the scientific element at the beginning. Does he agree that if the science showed that climate change is not man-made, the problem would be that much more urgent, and our action to remedy it would be that much more urgent, because we would not know what was causing the increases in the carbon dioxide emissions that are causing temperature fluctuation?

Edward Miliband: My hon. Friend knows much about such matters, and makes an important point.

There is a strong scientific and environmental argument. The truth is that we must act. The 4° map that we have attached to the documents for this debate illustrates some of the impact of dangerous climate change that will arise if we do not act, including melting of glaciers, rises in sea levels, and increasing drought, and that applies not just abroad. There is another issue that we must nail in this debate because I was struck by research showing that only 18 per cent. of people in the UK thought that their children would be affected by climate change. That suggests a responsibility to do a better job of getting across the potential impact.

Mr. Peter Ainsworth (East Surrey) (Con): The Secretary of State is making an exemplary speech, but is it not the case that more than 18 per cent. of children believe that their future may be affected, and are not children one of our best weapons to persuade grown-ups to get off their backsides and do something about it?

Edward Miliband: The hon. Gentleman makes an important and characteristically smart point. Children really understand the issue. I believe that 50 per cent. of parents pay attention to their children when it comes to climate change, but that only 2 per cent. pay attention to politicians. That is perhaps slightly depressing. [ Interruption. ] I do not agree with the right hon. Member for Hitchin and Harpenden (Mr. Lilley) who said from a sedentary position that it is indoctrination. I think it is about information.

Mr. Philip Hollobone (Kettering) (Con): Kettering was chosen to be the UK representative in the international consultation on climate change issues ahead of Copenhagen. People were asked:

“To what extent were you familiar with climate change and its consequences”
before taking part in the consultation? In reply, 58 per cent. of those from Kettering said that they knew some, 19 per cent. said that they knew little, and 19 per cent. said that they knew a lot.

Edward Miliband: Having succeeded in getting Kettering’s role into our discussions twice in the past two hours, the hon. Gentleman deserves local coverage. He speaks proudly for Kettering’s role in climate change, and its people may be better informed than the general population, but the answers depend slightly on how questions are asked.

Simon Hughes (North Southwark and Bermondsey) (LD): Does the Secretary of State agree that there is other clear evidence to support the case for following the precautionary principle? Last year, 20 million people around the world were displaced by climate-related disasters, and that figure is predicted to rise to 150 million over the next 40 years. The actions that resulted in them losing their homes and their livelihoods were real, and if that is not evidence that something is happening to our climate, no one will be believed.

Edward Miliband: The hon. Gentleman makes a very important point about the dangers both for those people and, frankly, for people in other countries to which they may be displaced. That point is absolutely right.

Let me move on briefly to make the other half of the argument, which partly relates to a point made earlier by the right hon. Member for Suffolk, Coastal (Mr. Gummer): there is an environmental argument, but there is also the positive argument. If anything, politicians in such debates—this is not a party political point at all—have not done enough to make the positive case for making the transition to low carbon: the case for future jobs and where they come from, for energy security, which is particularly important for Britain, and for quality of life.

All those issues are very important, and an example of what this means in concrete terms is that there is a question for Europe about whether it moves from 20 per cent. reductions in 2020, compared with 1990, as part of the Copenhagen agreement—that is our unilateral commitment—to 30 per cent. reductions. Some people will no doubt say that we cannot afford the cost and that it is very difficult to do that. I hope that we can get an agreement that is ambitious enough, so that Europe can move to the 30 per cent. target, partly for climate change and environmental reasons, but also for economic reasons. If we want a more robust carbon price—I believe that we all do, to achieve the low-carbon investment that we need and to give businesses the confidence to invest—frankly, the single best thing that we can do is to get an ambitious agreement at Copenhagen, including an ambitious move by Europe.

By the way, our data suggest—in no way do I celebrate this, obviously—that the recession has made it easier for Europe to go to 30 per cent., precisely because of the impacts on emissions in 2020, as a result. So it is important to make the environmental argument, but it is also important to make the economic and other arguments.

Joan Walley (Stoke-on-Trent, North) (Lab): My right hon. Friend’s attendance at Copenhagen is important, but on the economic agenda and the way in which we need to get through the recession at the moment, will he give the House an undertaking that he will work with the Regional Ministers, including the Minister for the West Midlands, so that areas such as Stoke-on-Trent can take advantage of the new environmental technologies that need to be developed? Innovation is needed if we are to meet our Copenhagen targets.

Edward Miliband: Definitely, and my hon. Friend makes a very important point. Her championing of the work done in Stoke-on-Trent is extremely important, because, in terms of the economic agenda, there is huge potential in different parts of the country.

John Hemming (Birmingham, Yardley) (LD): On the other arguments for sustainability, is the Secretary of State aware of the recent research done by the UK Energy Research Council that identified that it is quite likely that global oil production will peak in the next 10 years, if it already has not peaked?

Edward Miliband: Yes, there are different views on peak oil. I do not want to embarrass the right hon. Member for Suffolk, Coastal by quoting him again, but whether or not people say that will happen on a certain date, we must make the low-carbon transition. I find that the peak oilers get very exercised about this question, for reasons that I understand, but whether we care about climate change or peak oil, the basic message is in a sense, “Let’s diversify; let’s move to low carbon.”

Let me move to the second part of my remarks. What kind of agreement are we looking for? It is important to say, as I did during questions earlier, that the UN negotiations are moving too slowly and not going well, as anyone reading the newspapers or seeing walk-outs and so on will know. That is partly because there is a history of mistrust in the negotiations between developed and developing countries, as hon. Members on both sides of the House will know, and partly because people are stuck in entrenched positions, and it is very hard to get out of them. In a sense, that feels intrinsic to those negotiations.

The paradox is that if we look around the world at what has happened in the past year—this is not to try to put on rose-tinted spectacles—we see that lots of things have changed and happened that should give us cause for hope. The new American Administration have got a cap-and-trade Bill through Congress if not through the Senate, and I will come to that later. The new Japanese Government have found much greater ambition in their emissions reductions. For the first time, a Chinese President went to the UN—again, this has been underestimated in the debate—and announced a change in his domestic policy by saying that China would make substantial cuts in its carbon intensity by 2020.

As I said to the Chinese Minister on Saturday, we now await the numbers underlying that announcement. India has also been moving on this. Therefore, there is cause for hope, and I do not think we should be too negative.

Mr. Graham Stuart: Does the Secretary of State agree that one of the biggest blocks to progress at Copenhagen is the fact that the developed countries—the annexe 1 countries—have not met their promises? I know that we will do so, but other annexe 1 countries have not, and that does not give space to Governments of countries such as China that represent hundreds of millions of people who live on less than $1.50 a day. Such countries are already doing quite a lot, but how can they have the political space to take action when the rich, annexe 1 countries fail to do what they formally promised to do?

Edward Miliband: The hon. Gentleman is absolutely right. Whatever agreement is struck at Copenhagen, one issue for the future will be compliance and what we do in cases of non-compliance. There are not, in truth, easy answers to that.

That point leads me on to address the core of the deal that we are looking for, about which I think hon. Members on both sides of the House agree. Ambition is important. We must get on a 2° trajectory. Lord Stern has come up with rather interesting numbers on this, which suggest that the world is currently emitting about 50 gigatonnes, and we should be seeking to get on a pathway leading to about 18 gigatonnes by 2050. To get on that pathway, we need to be at 44 gigatonnes by 2020. That is a good benchmark for thinking about the agreement we are seeking, although we will have to see whether we will get all the way to 44 gigatonnes. Lord Stern says—this is why there is a little cause for optimism—that the pledges already on the table take us down to 48 gigatonnes. That reduction might not sound like very much, but it should be noted that we would expect the numbers to rise to between 55 and 60 gigatonnes if people were carrying on with business as usual. We need to go further, however—we need to have the ambition to do so. That will have to come from actions by countries, finance for developing countries, and succeeding in areas such as reducing deforestation.

Jo Swinson (East Dunbartonshire) (LD): I am listening with great interest, and I am enjoying the Secretary of State’s speech. In terms of these negotiations and the need to deal with the entrenched positions and get positive movement, it is vital that world leaders attend as well as people like himself— [Interruption.] That comment came out wrong.

I am therefore very pleased that the Prime Minister has said he will go to Copenhagen and take a lead for the UK. However, what might the country be able to do diplomatically to encourage other countries also to send their Heads of State—their Presidents and Prime Ministers—as well as their Environment Ministers, because when there are such entrenched positions, that is sometimes what is required to get solutions?

Mr. Speaker: Order. May I just gently say to the House that I know there is a lot of interest in speaking in this debate, and we wish to facilitate the full and free flow of debate, but I hope that interventions will become shorter as we proceed, not longer?

Edward Miliband: I assure the hon. Member for East Dunbartonshire (Jo Swinson) that I took her remarks in the spirit in which they were intended. It is, indeed, important that world leaders are at Copenhagen. She made the important point that we will need such leaders in order to seal the deal, and I have repeatedly made that point to our counterparts in the United States and elsewhere. As someone who is helping to negotiate on some of these issues, I was very struck that before the leaders summit in L’Aquila in July we were making very little progress on the question of whether the major economies would sign up to the 2° target for an outcome at Copenhagen, but the intervention of leaders made it happen. That is illustrative of the role leaders can, and must, play.

Simon Hughes: There is no doubt that world leaders are taking an interest and Governments are taking a much greater interest. Does the Secretary of State accept that given the current state of negotiations, which he will know more about than me, there is a risk that the best we will get is a framework deal, not a deal with commitments? Does he also agree that it is better to have a framework deal, and speedy recall and serious commitments, than a weak deal? Also, will the UK still contemplate being bolder than the EU was a couple of weeks ago in trying to trigger further progress?

Edward Miliband: That is an important point, and I promise the hon. Gentleman that I will come to it.

We need to be ambitious, and we also need to be fair in the agreement we reach, which is why finance is so important. It is worth making the point that we are asking developing countries to do not as we did, but as we say we want them to do—that is, to grow in a low-carbon way. Let me give one example: 450 million people in India are not connected to the electricity grid and we are asking the country to leapfrog over the high-carbon way of getting electricity to people and to move to a low-carbon way of doing that. I was encouraged when I was in India. It has very ambitious plans for 20 million people to get solar power and lighting, but 20 million is a long way short of 450 million. Therefore, when people ask what finance in Copenhagen is about, this is my answer: it is in part about enabling countries such as India to move further and faster, to the benefit of the world, as it will not drive up its emissions as it would if it went down the high-carbon route; and it is also, crucially, about adaptation for some of the poorest countries in the world. I know that many hon. Members feel strongly about that.

In this context, the EU offer is very important. The offer is €100 billion in public and private finance by 2020, a global public finance offer of between €22 billion and €50 billion—that is a range, but it is a range that we will take into the negotiations—and global fast-start finance. The big task—let me be completely candid—is to try to get other countries to sign up to this. Europe has taken a lead, but we now need the United States and other countries to move on finance as well. That is not straightforward, but it is crucial.

Let me mention in passing the issue of additionality, because it is very important. Oxfam has done very good research showing the costs if, for instance, $50 billion a year was diverted from aid budgets. That is why we have said we will use no more than 10 per cent. of the existing aid budget in order to make our climate finance contribution. We have further to go to secure such additionality commitments from other countries.

Mr. Nigel Dodds (Belfast, North) (DUP): Is it possible to justify taking 10 per cent. out of the aid budget? Why should part of the financing come out of the aid budget? Is that not an entirely separate issue?

Edward Miliband: We want to limit the amount of money that is spent from the aid budget, but about 10 per cent. of the aid budget is already spent on climate-related activities, because the truth is that in certain cases we cannot separate out climate change-induced issues from issues of poverty, as the two are inextricably linked. That concludes my second point, which was on fairness and finance.

My third point is on the comprehensive nature of the agreement. Many hon. Members have campaigned on forestry and deforestation, and we must make progress on that. As far as I can tell, this is one of the areas where the United Nations negotiations have been going slightly better, such as in respect of the issue of reducing emissions from deforestation and RED-plus.

Joan Walley: Deforestation is critical in getting an overall agreement. I was therefore disturbed to read reports in the media a couple of weeks ago that the European negotiating position would be not to support the removal of palm oil in plantations. I understand that is not the case. I would be grateful if my right hon. Friend would put the record straight, so that we know what position Europe is taking in the negotiations on forests.

Edward Miliband: I am glad my hon. Friend makes that point, because it gives me the chance to make it clear that The Independent is not always right in its reporting. It is not the case that we want to do what has been said in respect of the EU. We completely understand her point and the issue of necessary protection.

The agreement needs to be comprehensive. That leads me on to the point made by the hon. Member for North Southwark and Bermondsey (Simon Hughes) about the kind of agreement we get. The Danes, who are the hosts of the meeting, have said in the past couple of weeks that, given the pace of the UN negotiations, they think achieving a full legal treaty is unlikely. It has to be said that we would have preferred a full legal treaty.

The important thing about the agreement we seek in December is that although it may be a political agreement, it must lead, on a very clear timetable, to a legally binding treaty. In other words, in December, we must set the terms of the movement to such a treaty, because that is very important. I must make it clear that, in addition, an agreement without numbers would not be a great agreement—it would be a wholly inadequate agreement. Even though the agreement may be a political agreement, it must be as comprehensive as possible and it must contain numbers, because that is what we are talking about. It is all very well getting the architecture right—there are big issues involved in the architecture of an agreement—but the numbers are what really matter.

We must also have reduction commitments from developed countries and actions from developing countries that translate into reduced quantities of emissions—not cuts in emissions from major developing countries before 2020, but real actions that contribute to the kind of peaking of global emissions that is a central task of the agreement. Then—this is where the architecture matters—we need to find a way of transparently recording those commitments from developed countries and actions from developing countries, and have people standing behind them. It is important to say that we have made some progress on the question of developing countries needing to put actions on the table that can be quantified and that they will stand behind.

Mr. Elliot Morley (Scunthorpe) (Lab): The Secretary of State is getting very much to the heart of the matter. I wish to raise the issue of numbers with him, because he will know that one of the weaknesses of the Kyoto agreement was that the figures were the result of horse-trading; they were not really the result of any kind of scientific assessment. We must not make the same mistake in Copenhagen.

Edward Miliband: My right hon. Friend, who knows so much about these questions, is right. We need to agree numbers that are not only scientifically based, but realistic. In retrospect, it is clear that some countries signed up to numbers at Kyoto—I do not know whether they knew that this would be the case at the time—that they have come nowhere close to achieving. The numbers need to be realistic and consistent with the science.

Let me say how we get to that agreement. I think that I have made it clear that the formal negotiations have their role, but will not, on their own, achieve success. That is why in June the Prime Minister made proposals on finance, and it is why it is right that the European Union has not treated this like a conventional negotiation—it has not kept its cards close to its chest until 3 am on the last evening and then revealed its finance numbers. We have got to push and we have to be persuaders, and sometimes unilateral action is important, because it drives people forward.

I also think that the EU’s role in the coming weeks is to use our commitment to go to 30 per cent. as part of a global deal as a way of levering up greater commitments from others. May I briefly say something about the situation in the United States, which is very important? Hon. Members will know that it is, in a sense, key to this deal and the situation is not straightforward at all. I believe that it is still possible that the US will come forward with a clear number at Copenhagen, despite the fact that the Senate Bill may not be through. That is very important, because the risks of failure at Copenhagen and delay are significant; I do not think that this gets any easier the longer we leave it. Thus, I think—we have conversations about this with the United States—that it is important that the US, despite its domestic issues, comes to Copenhagen with a clear set of ambitions and is able to sign up to an agreement. We know that we need the US as part of an agreement and that the biggest flaw in the Kyoto agreement was that the US was not part of it. Just to be clear, we in Europe intend to use our commitments to drive others forward.

Mr. Parmjit Dhanda (Gloucester) (Lab): I entirely agree with my right hon. Friend, who is making the case extremely well as to why the United States, and all the major powers, have a big role to play. Will he argue the case in this Chamber today for the President of the United States to be in Copenhagen, because that is the strongest way of getting the message across and actually doing something about the problem?

Edward Miliband: I have made it clear that leaders do have a very important role to play. What President Obama does is obviously a matter for him, but we have made it clear that we think that leaders need to be part of a Copenhagen agreement if we are to secure the agreement we want.

Let me conclude by repeating that we need to keep our focus on a good deal, not just any deal. A deal without numbers would be a bad deal; a deal without developed country commitments would not be a good deal; and a deal without action from developing countries would not be a good deal. The central task of any agreement is to show that we can be on, at worst, the 2° pathway, and that we have a credible way of peaking global emissions. The world has never done that before throughout its industrial history and it is a very big prize.

I wish to end on a note of optimism. There are huge difficulties, because of the scale of the task that we face. As I have said in our discussions with other countries, every country faces its compelling constraints in this, be it the US, where the debate is behind that in other countries, or India, because of the number of its people who are in poverty and the fact that it needs to grow. The truth is that we will succeed in tackling this only if we understand each other’s constraints and show ambition. If we can conclude a successful agreement in Copenhagen, I do not think that people will look back and say, “This was a mistake.” I think that people will look back and say, “This was an historic moment. It was actually easier than people thought to make the kind of changes that we need to make.” As the chief scientist in the US said to me, once we start to turn around this inexorable rise in emissions, people will say, “Actually, the quality of life can be better, our economy can be better and it was not so hard after all.” The aim at Copenhagen is not only to avoid environmental disaster, but to build a better life for people here and around the world, and I hope that we can agree something that those in all parts of the House can support.

 

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The Minister of State, Department of Energy and Climate Change (Joan Ruddock): This has been an excellent debate and I want to comment on the various things that people have said, to try to answer the questions and then to make some remarks of my own.

The hon. Member for Tunbridge Wells (Greg Clark) said at the beginning of the debate that he wanted a clear message to come from it that there should be a complete unity of purpose, and that has just been echoed by his deputy. We take that to heart and appreciate what has been said. The hon. Member for Tunbridge Wells invited me to apprise the House of the construction of the €100 billion, and I am happy to do that. We believe—and what the EU has proposed—is that the €100 billion should be made up of revenue raised through the international carbon market, countries’ efforts and international public finance. Public finance is also needed to support early action and the EU estimates that the total international public finance needed is between €22 billion and €50 billion. That is what we are talking about from 2020, but we acknowledge that there needs to be early action. That requires public money, which we will have to find a means of raising, and the EU and we in the UK have said that we will do our bit.

 

The hon. Gentleman spoke about the vast potential of the new low-carbon market, and said that the UK was well placed. We agree entirely on that point and see it as a means of bringing ourselves out of recession and of creating many more jobs. He also spoke of the need for additionality in support for developing countries and that is why we proposed the figure of 10 per cent. We see that as a means of limiting the amount of money that can be said to meet both poverty and climate needs.

My right hon. Friend the Member for Scunthorpe (Mr. Morley) welcomed the EU agreement on finance and expressed concern for developing countries which would need that for adaptation. That is very much the line that we have taken. He said that we needed to make our numbers add up in a way that was guided by science, and that is entirely the point that the Government have made. He spoke about the new Stern analysis, which is calculated in gigatonnes, and the gaps that exist. He referred to the work of legislators and we encourage and appreciate the work that is done by GLOBE. My right hon. Friend spoke of deforestation and the need to ensure that in any deal there needs to be protection of forest people. That is something, again, that the UK Government have pressed for strongly at all times during the negotiations.

The hon. Member for North Southwark and Bermondsey (Simon Hughes) said that he hoped that we would be encouraged by the debate. I can assure him that we have been. He said that this is one agreement that could compare with Bretton Woods or peace treaties after the war, but I believe that it is the most important negotiation that the world will ever see. If it fails, we will have catastrophic global climate change and it will be irreversible. It cannot fail.

He asked about the nature of the agreement. Let me make it very clear that we believe that at this meeting in Copenhagen we need a politically binding agreement: what people say there has to bind them in the name of their countries. There can be no doubt about that. The legal agreement will take time and effort afterwards, and the timetable needs to be announced at Copenhagen. Yvo de Boer has said that he believes that it will have to be concluded by the end of 2010. The hon. Gentleman said that it is important that we reach a politically binding agreement with numbers, and I can confirm that numbers have to be on the table. We are very clear about that.

The hon. Member for North Southwark and Bermondsey asked us to go further than 34 per cent., and we have said that the UK will raise its contribution if we get a global deal in line with the EU promise. He asked where the money would come from, and I think that I have explained that already. He spoke about the institutions involved and said that they should not include the World Bank. Although no decisions have been taken, we believe that some new architecture is needed, as well as improvements in the existing institutions.

The hon. Gentleman asked whether there would be new sources of finance, and we are very clear that they will be necessary. He spoke about levies on aviation and shipping: I can tell him that they are under discussion, although our preference in the long term is that those sectors should be treated as part of the carbon trading scheme.

My right hon. Friend the Member for Holborn and St. Pancras (Frank Dobson) spoke passionately about Bangladesh and the problems that it faces that go beyond its Government and peoples. He said that they are down to all of us, and we agree completely, as the voices of such countries are critical in this debate. We very much support the adaptation efforts that are already under way in Bangladesh.

The hon. Member for East Surrey (Mr. Ainsworth) spoke about the need to take action now, and asked how we would bridge the gap between the €100 billion that European leaders have agreed on and the €400 billion that developing countries have said that they will require. We know that developing countries need to grow their capacity, as there is no way that we can throw such huge sums at this problem without enabling those countries to deal with and plan for the money’s use. For that reason, there will be a lead-in period, with the €100 billion being distributed annually from 2020. In the run-up to that, funding streams from public funds will have to be increased, and I have spoken already about fast-track moneys.

The hon. Gentleman said that there was a strong argument for a carbon market and spoke about the potential of assistance in tackling deforestation through credits. Again, we agree with that and believe that ultimately it will be the way to raise the huge sums that will be required.

My hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh, North and Leith (Mark Lazarowicz) talked about the role of the carbon markets, and I pay tribute to him for the work that he has done in that regard. He also spoke about the nature of the agreement, a subject that I think I have dealt with already.

The right hon. Member for Suffolk, Coastal (Mr. Gummer) said that we needed more action by Government. He also spoke about HFCs, which I will come to later when I respond to my hon. Friend the Member for Eltham (Clive Efford). The right hon. Gentleman thought that it was a pity that we could not sign up to the 10:10 campaign, but we were being asked to commit the whole public sector and could not possibly mandate every school and hospital. However, we have certainly said that we will do as much as we can and that we will see whether we can increase our commitment.

My hon. Friend the Member for Morley and Rothwell (Colin Challen) was rather pessimistic and said that Copenhagen would be a missed opportunity, but I remind him that my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State has said that the talks will go to the wire. We are determined to do whatever is necessary to get there. My hon. Friend said that nuclear power would not be ready in time and that we did not have the renewable energy sources that we would need. He linked that to peaking emissions, but this country’s emissions have already peaked. They will continue to come down, and we already have under way projects involving wind and other new technologies.

The right hon. Member for Hitchin and Harpenden (Mr. Lilley) criticised the Government for advertising to try to increase peoples’ understanding of the problem, and then criticised us because people did not understand it. He cannot have it both ways—[Hon. Members: “Oh yes we can!”] Some Opposition Members say that he can have it both ways, but he cannot. He said that the majority of scientists may disagree with his point of view, and that is correct. That is where the global consensus comes from and no one has suggested that it is absolute. Of course there is variation in what people think, but we are going with the majority.

The right hon. Gentleman stated that the Met Office had not made data available, and we have taken steps to try to make that happen. The Met Office has written to all those who provided data to ask whether they will agree to release those data.

My hon. Friend the Member for Llanelli (Nia Griffith) made an excellent speech. As a great champion of renewables, she pleaded for more help for renewable energy in emerging markets, and of course that is something that we are giving.

The hon. Member for Angus (Mr. Weir) spoke about various matters with which I have already dealt, so I hope that he will accept my previous answers. My hon. Friend the Member for Eltham talked about HFCs. We are pushing for a global agreement on a phase-down of HFCs. He might not think that that is enough, but that is the way to make progress. The process forms part of the Copenhagen agreement, and we will see that it is dealt with effectively there.

The hon. Member for Beverley and Holderness (Mr. Stuart) quite properly spoke about China and rightly praised the great efforts being made by that country, which we equally applaud. My hon. Friend the Member for Southampton, Test (Dr. Whitehead) paid welcome tribute to the Prime Minister’s intervention on climate financing, for which we were grateful.

The hon. Member for Leominster (Bill Wiggin) made a passionate plea about orang-utans and palm oil exports. I will be examining that issue when I go to Sumatra next week. I have already met the industry, and I will talk to the country’s Government when I get there.

My hon. Friend the Member for Brighton, Kemptown (Dr. Turner) focused on the US and asked several what-if questions. I have to tell him that there is no plan B—we are going to Copenhagen to get a deal. We hope that the US will be able to do what is necessary, and until there is failure, we do not contemplate failure. He talked about aspects of the action that needs to be taken now on adaptation. We are doing things now; we are not waiting for Copenhagen. We are supplying money to the Congo basin, and we have got £800,000 into the climate investment funds.

My hon. Friend the Member for Ealing, Acton and Shepherd's Bush (Mr. Slaughter) spoke about the 10:10 campaign. I am glad that he is pleased about the £20 million and I have something more to tell him: the Department of Energy and Climate Change will be joining the 10:10 campaign as of today because we can sign up to a further effort.

As my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State said as he opened the debate, we need an agreement that is ambitious, effective and fair. We have worked consistently here and abroad to advance such an agreement. We have accepted our own responsibilities by putting in place the first carbon budgets in the world, accepting ambitious binding targets and being willing to go further in the event of a deal. We have driven ambition across the EU. We have intervened on finance at a critical stage. We have worked with forest states to get deforestation into the agreement, and we have provided funding to get the adaptation fund operational. Our officials have worked around the clock to add their expertise to this massive endeavour.

No one should be surprised if at times frustration leads to pessimism when more than 100 nations sit down to grapple with more than 200 pages of negotiating text. However, few doubt that this is a deal that the world must have. I know, because I have had the privilege of going to Greenland and seeing for myself the melting Arctic sea ice. I know, because I have met Ursula, from the disappearing Carteret islands, who said:

“For leaders it is only a lifestyle change; for us it is life and death”.

I know, because last week I heard the urgent plea of Vice-President Waheed from the Maldives when he asked assembled Ministers what he would tell his people if no deal was forthcoming.

We need a deal to save the land, lives and livelihoods of millions of people in the developing world, and we need a deal because climate change affects us too, with a cost to our economy, our environment and our security. However, climate change is not just a message of threats and potential disaster, although we must take that to heart. It is also a positive message—a call to a global transition to a low-carbon economy. It is a call to a world in which unprecedented co-operation will have to come about, to a world in which technologies are shared for mutual benefit and resources are properly conserved, and to a world that respects nature and provides us all with a safer, cleaner and greener place to live and work.

I thank hon. Members for the good wishes that they have given us today, because all that is what is at stake in the Copenhagen talks, and it is why we in this Government will do everything that we can to achieve the ambitious agreement that this world so desperately needs.

Question put and agreed to.

Resolved,

That this House has considered the matter of climate change: preparation for the Copenhagen climate change conference.

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