Consequences of a 6 degree world

 

A shocking warning has been issued from scientists that the world is on course for a rise in temperatures of 6 deg C. The study the Global Carbon Project led by Professor Corinne Le Quere, of the University of East Anglia and the British Antarctic Survey, found that there has been a 29% increase in global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel between 2000 and 2008.

 

Global temperatures were on a path to rise by an average of 6C by the end of the century as CO2 emissions increased and the Earth's natural ability to absorb the gas declined, it found. 'The global trends we are on with CO2 emissions from fossil fuels suggest that we’re heading towards 6C of global warming,' said Professor Le Quere.

 

The Independent said that such a rise – which would be much higher nearer the poles – would have 'cataclysmic and irreversible consequences' for the Earth, making large parts of the planet uninhabitable and threatening the basis of human civilisation.

 

Science writer Mark Lynas tells the paper: 'It would catapult the planet into an extreme greenhouse state not seen for nearly 100 million years, when dinosaurs grazed on polar rainforests and deserts reached into the heart of Europe.'

 

'It would cause a mass extinction of almost all life and probably reduce humanity to a few struggling groups of embattled survivors clinging to life near the poles.'

 

'Delay is just as dangerous as myopia,' it said. 'The longer our leaders leave it to begin the work of cutting carbon emissions, the more the opportunity to limit the rising temperature of the earth shrinks. The warnings are clear. The time for action is now.'

 

The Guardian said the news would give 'greater urgency to the diplomatic manoeuvring' ahead of the global change conference in Copenhagen that opens on 7 December.

 

It said the authors of the report had called for urgent action by leaders in Copenhagen to agree drastic emissions cuts in order to avoid dangerous climate change.

 

'Based on our knowledge of recent trends in CO2 emissions and the time it takes to change energy infrastructure around the world and on the response of the sinks to climate change and variability, the Copenhagen conference is our last chance to stabilise climate at 2C above pre-industrial levels in a smooth and organized way,' said Professor Le Quere.

 

'If the agreement is too weak or if the commitments are not respected, we will be on a path to 5C or 6C.'

 

The Daily Telegraph highlighted a finding in the report, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, that over the past half century the average 'airborne fraction' of carbon remaining in the atmosphere had probably increased from 40 to 45% because the oceans were less able to absorb the greenhouse gas.

 

'The only way to control climate change is through a drastic reduction in global CO2 emissions,' it quoted Professor Le Quere as saying.

 

Richard Betts, head of climate impacts at the UK Met Office and an author on the chapter of the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report dealing with the effects of a changing atmosphere, told the BBC that the report ought to be of interest to policymakers in the run-up to the Copenhagen summit. 'It's an important step towards understanding what we’re doing to the world’s carbon budget,' he said.

 

In October, the UK Government launched a map [map pg] of the impacts of a 4 degree temperature increase.

 

Related links

Global carbon project

World on course 'for catastrophic six degrees' rise in temperature', The Times Of India 18 November 2009  

World on course for catastrophic 6° rise, reveal scientists, The Independent 18 November 2009

Global temperatures could rise 6C by end of century, say scientists, Guardian 17 November 2009

Climate change: temperatures to increase 6C by end of century, Telegraph 18 November 2009

Earth 'heading for 6C' of warming, BBC 17 November 2009

4 degrees map