The world must embark on an 'energy revolution' to prevent a rise in temperatures that would be a 'catastrophe for the planet', the head of International Energy Agency said today (10 November).

 

The IEA, which represents the largest energy consumers in the rich world, said that governments and industry needed to invest a total of $10.5 trillion in low-carbon energy technologies and energy efficiency by 2030 to hit the target of limiting the concentration of carbon in the atmosphere to 450 parts per million (ppm).

 

Its statement came just a day after the UK Government set out its vision for new investment in the energy sector in six National Policy Statements aimed at achieving the UK's target of cutting carbon emissions by 80% by 2050.

 

Nobuo Tanaka, the IEA's Executive Director, said that if no action was taken then energy demand would soar by a 'dramatic' 40% by 2030 with the 'vast bulk' of the increase coming from fossil fuels, which are the main culprits behind carbon emissions.

 

Speaking at the launch of its annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) in London, he said: 'Such an outcome could have profound implications for energy security, the environment and economic development.'

 

'Most worrying from a climate change point of view [this] scenario puts us on track for a temperature increase of up to six degrees Celsius by the end of the century and this would be no less than a catastrophe for the planet. As the leading source of carbon emissions, energy is at the heart of the problem and must be at the core of the solution.'

 

He said that stabilising carbon penetration at 450ppm and limiting temperature increases to 2 degrees C was 'achievable' but only with strong global action. 'Copenhagen provides a decisive opportunity to take the next steps to reach a global agreement and put the world on a sustainable energy path,' he said.

 

The WEO says that hitting the 450ppm target means cutting energy-related CO2 emissions by 34% from their expected peak at 30.9 gigatonnes(Gt) just before 2020 and 2030. Of this 3.8Gt reduction it says that national policies and sectoral agreements in transport and industry will deliver 2.1Gt, with the remainder achieved through cap-and-trade regimes for the power and industry sectors.

 

The IEA said that the $10.5 trillion needed globally in the energy sector would be more than offset by fuel costs savings, which in the transport sector would amount to $6.2 trillion over that period.

 

Fatih Birol, the IEA's Chief Economist, said: 'We need a deal in Copenhagen and a signal has to be sent to the energy sector. Without that signal nothing will move because of the speeches or the newspaper articles. There should be a financial signal and regulatory framework sent to the energy sector and investments should be carried out.'

 

A key part of this signal is the price of carbon. Mr Birol said that in industrialised countries the price of carbon will need to reach $50 a tonne by 2020 and $110 by 2030. In developing countries the price of carbon would need to reach $30 a tonne by 2020 and $50 by 2030. 'If you want to get to 450ppm an energy revolution needs to take place,' he said, highlighting nuclear power, greater use of CCS and major investment in renewables.

 

Developing countries will need to invest $200bn annually to move away from fossil fuels, the IEA believes. Mr Birol said: 'The OECD should co-finance some of the projects in the non-OECD on top of the mitigation OECD countries should do at home.'

 

Mr Tanaka added that the costs of failure at Copenhagen would be high. 'Every year that passes the window for action on emissions becomes narrower and narrower and the costs of the transformation of the energy sector rises by $500bn. That is the cost of inaction.'

 

Meanwhile the IEA dismissed as 'groundless' an article in The Guardian newspaper, which quoted anonymous sources saying that the IEA was pushed by US officials to downplay the risk that the world was running out of oil. Mr Tanaka said: 'I think that article is just groundless. We are very much a neutral agency and we are proud of our analysis. We have always been saying investment is necessary.'

 

Related links

IEA calls for global push to end energy poverty, Guardian 10 November 2009

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