TRANSCRIPT

LBC 97.3 Breakfast

Tuesday 17th November 2009

Copenhagen climate change conference – Ed Miliband, Kelvin MacKenzie

 

Nick Ferrari, presenter: First off, Ed Miliband, Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, joins me. Mr Miliband, President Obama said he's not going. China's going reluctantly. India's not happy. Nothing's going to come out of Copenhagen, is it?

 

Ed Miliband, Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change: I think that's too pessimistic, Nick, because actually the world's come a long way in a year. We've had actually the Chinese president go to the United Nations and say that he wants to be part of a Copenhagen deal. President Obama, to my knowledge, hasn't said he's not going to… not coming to Copenhagen; he's said he may well come. I think we can still get a comprehensive agreement at Copenhagen which cuts the emissions of the world, and that's the most important thing because the environmental damage that will be caused if we don't do something is very significant, and it will be better for our economy, frankly – if the world can say we are going to move to lower carbon it will create all kinds of jobs in the new green industries of the future, and give business confidence, so I'm less pessimistic than you.

 

NF: But, Mr Miliband, I'm sure you're hoping for that, but even the head of the UN Environment Programme says that it’s unlikely that there will be a binding agreement out of Copenhagen, so without being too confrontational, how come you know better?

 

EM: Well, because the real issue about Copenhagen is can we get a comprehensive agreement on the key issues? If it takes a few months to then turn it into a legal text, a legal treaty – if the lawyers have to get locked in a room and turn it into a legal treaty which gets signed a few months later – so be it.  But the most important thing is can we get, on the key issues that really matter – most importantly, what are we going to do about climate emissions… carbon emissions – if we can get people to sign up on those questions then that is… will be a major, major step forward at Copenhagen. So, you know, this issue of the legal treaty is important, but, in the end, what really matters is what’s the concrete commitments that come out of Copenhagen, and I still think we can have concrete commitments.

 

NF: In three and a half weeks, four weeks' time, when we're assessing Copenhagen, how will we know if it's been a success?

 

EM: I think if the world as a whole, not just the US and Europe, makes commitments which mean that global carbon emissions start to fall rather than carrying on rising – as they've been doing throughout our industrial history – then that would be a major success, because a treaty…

 

NF: But can you give us a specific number that we could listen for? A percentage… an annual percentage fall, or whatever it might be that we can expect to hear?

 

EM: We're going to get into the world of gigatonnes if we're not very careful. Basically, at the moment, we're… the world as a whole is emitting about 50 gigatonnes of carbon. If by 2020 we can turn that around and get under 50 gigatonnes – the scientists say we need to get to about 44 or 45 gigatonnes – that will be a major success, because it will mean that we're on a path that the scientists tell us we… is the minimum we absolutely need to be on to prevent the most dangerous effects of climate change.

 

NF: Is Britain doing enough?

 

EM: I think we are. I mean, we've said we're going to cut our emissions by a third by 2020, and that’s tough. That requires big changes in the way we produce energy, so moving to renewable energy, nuclear energy, for example. It means changes in people's homes, so much better home energy insulation. Changes in transport; move to electric cars. I think we've actually been… shown leadership on this issue. There's always more we can do, but I think we're doing our bit.  

 

NF: Alright. There's… I'm joined…

 

EM: So there's… the real challenge is to persuade others to do their bit too.

 

NF: Alright.  Mr Miliband, I'm joined today, as I'm sure you're aware, we're celebrating today 40 years of the current incarnation, and, of course, the most successful incarnation of The Sun newspaper, as I'm sure you're probably aware. Its most famous former editor, Kelvin McKenzie, is with me through the course of the morning, and he’s requested a question of you, Mr Miliband.  I'm sure…

 

EM: Of course.

 

NF: Excellent. Well, this…

 

EM: It will be my pleasure to talk to Kelvin.

 

NF: …this is Kelvin to talk to you. Go ahead, Kelvin.

 

Kelvin MacKenzie, former editor, The Sun: Right. Yes. I'm puzzled by a survey which appears in the Telegraph – comes from the Met Office – which says that: 'If we don't deal with climate… global warming actually, within a generation' – this is within a generation – 'heatwaves will kill thousands, there will be tropical-style storms and widespread flooding in Britain.' So literally these guys, who can't actually forecast whether it's going to be rainy or sunny, are now saying that thousands are going to die within a generation. Do you agree with that?

 

EM: I think it is very dangerous if we don't tackle the problem. We published our own climate projection earlier this year which showed similar effects. Basically, Kelvin, the way you've got to think about it is the 2003 heatwaves which killed lots of people around Europe would become more frequent, and will become, in a way, normal, and that poses all kinds of challenges to the people of Britain.

 

KM: No.  I'm… it's talking about the UK. I was actually in France when that heatwave hit…

 

EM: Right.

 

KM: …and it was slightly different in the south of France than it was in, say, the Preston or Rochdale area.

 

EM: Sure, sure.

 

KM: And the idea that we have the Met Office saying that thousands will die within a generation, I find that, to be honest with you, utterly preposterous and damages what is a pretty good argument by you.

 

NF: And I think particularly, Mr Miliband, you know, they can't even actually say what the weather will be like at Twickenham on Saturday for England versus New Zealand, so how do we know thousands are going to be dying in years to come?  

 

EM: Well, I think what they…

 

NF: That is the truth, because you can't tell me – and I don't expect you to, by the way, sir – but you can't actually tell me whether it's going to rain… be rainy or sunny for the… against the All Blacks, can you, in reality?

 

EM: If I pretended I could say that to you, then I think you would be… you'd have… you wouldn't believe me.

 

NF: Precisely, so how can I believe these predictions that we're all going to be dying in droves?

 

EM: Well, because they can make a prediction about long-term trends, and they can… I mean, it's… you know, it may be hard to tell you exactly what the weather will be on Saturday, but you can make a prediction about long-term trends, because we know there is a clear link between more CO2 in the atmosphere – more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere – and higher temperatures, and therefore you can project. Of course there's uncertainty about these things, but you can project the effects. And I think… look, I think the Met Office is a very august organisation and a very scientifically based organisation – I was there a couple of weeks ago – but I think it is also their duty to warn people of the effects they think there'll be in Britain, and I think that’s what they're trying to do.

 

NF: One last quick one from Kelvin, I think.

 

KM: What car are you driven around London in?  Is it a Toyota Prius, or is it something more guzzling?

 

EM: It is a Toyota Prius – it is a Toyota Prius, but there's always more… I don't present myself as a paragon of virtue on this, Kelvin, at all, there's always more we can all do, including myself, about making sure that we cut our own carbon emissions.

 

KM: Thanks.

 

NF: Thank you for your time. Ed Miliband, Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change. Good luck as and when you go to Copenhagen. I know it is important for many folk.

 

Ends