The commitments made by countries to cut carbon emissions have put the world on the threshold of hitting the target of limiting the rise in global temperatures to 2 degrees C, according to climate change economist Lord Stern of Brentford.

 

Lord Stern said that a strong political agreement at the United Nations conference in Copenhagen this month would give the world a '50-50 chance' of averting a temperature rise that scientists warn would have devastating consequences.

 

Lord Stern was speaking at the launch of two new reports that analyse how close the world is to avoiding a rise above 2 degrees C based on current commitments. 'It is possible to create a 50-50 chance of avoiding a rise in global average temperature of more than 2˚C, which many scientists regard as the threshold for 'dangerous' climate change.'

 

On Lord Stern's findings, a DECC spokesperson said:

 

'Lord Stern yet again makes a compelling case for action now rather than prohibitively expensive delay, that the cumulative best offers on the table so far take us much of the way, but that what's needed is ambition and political will in Copenhagen to give us the best chance against dangerous climate change.'

 

'Finance is vital to getting an ambitious and comprehensive deal. That's why UK and the PM took the lead with a proposed working figure of $100 billion a year by 2020 from both public and carbon market finance.'

 

'Stern recognises and acknowledges this. We need to make clear to developing countries that there is concrete finance on the table, so that they are confident to take action.'

 

Lord Stern said that countries had to halt and reverse the growth of annual emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, reducing them from about 47 billion tonnes in 2010 to about 44 billion tonnes in 2020, and decreasing to much less than 20 billion tonnes in 2050.

 

'If you add up the most ambitious of the intentions to reduce emissions that have been expressed so far, they are, if delivered, around 2 billion tonnes higher than the overall 2020 goal,' he said.

 

In his report, 'Deciding our future in Copenhagen: will the world rise to the challenge of climate change', he says that politicians have made 'major advances and a gathering momentum' over the past few weeks and months.

 

'It is now clear that if countries move together and find extra margins of action, we can reduce global annual emissions to 44 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent by 2020, and set the world on a responsible path,' he writes.

 

'If current ambitions for emissions reductions across the world are settled, financed and delivered, we may be only a few billion tonnes short of where we need to be.'

 

The report, which is published by the London School of Economics’ Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, says that rich countries must provide as much as $200bn a year to poorer countries to help them adapt to and mitigate climate change.

 

It says developed countries should show the extent of their commitment by providing $50bn a year by 2015, rising to $100bn in 2020, and progressing to around $200bn during the 2020s as effective low-carbon and adaptation programmes are developed and implemented.

 

Lord Stern said the $50bn target represented just 0.1% of their annual GDP. 'A major challenge is for rich countries to provide sufficient financial support to help developing countries to reduce their emissions and to adapt to those impacts that cannot now be avoided,' he said.

 

Lord Stern, author of the influential 2005 report for the UK Treasury The Economics of Climate Change, said the British Government for taking the lead on climate change.

 

'The UK has been a leader through its climate change legislation and strategic action plan, and in arguing for strong financial support for the developing world,' he said, urging Chancellor Alistair Darling to use the 9 December pre-Budget report to commit to $3bn a year by 2015.

 

Speaking ahead of a major speech about the prospects for the Copenhagen meeting, Lord Stern concluded: 'We cannot afford the cost of failure on climate change.'

 

'An agreement now lies in the hands of world leaders who can make decisions across the full range of political issues that relate to climate change. They must demonstrate determination and vision.'

 

The Grantham Institute is also publishing a longer report, 'Mitigating climate change through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions: the science and economics of future paths for global annual emissions'

 

Related links

The Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, The London School of Economics and Political Science  

Deciding our Future in Copenhagen: will the world rise to the challenge of climate change?, The London School of Economics and Political Science  

Copenhagen summit is last chance to save the planet, Lord Stern, Telegraph 02 December 2009

Climate change sceptics are 'muddled', says Lord Stern, Telegraph 01 December 2009

EU 'should cut emissions by 30%', BBC News 01 December 2009

Global warming measures will cost 'twice as much as predicted', Times Online 02 December 2009

Families should pay new taxes on plane and ferry travel to help Third World tackle global warming says top climate guru, Daily Mail 01 December 2009

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1232409/Families-pay-new-taxes-plane-ferry-travel-help-Third-World-tackle-global-warming-says-climate-guru.html#ixzz0YWWm6cTJ